Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Hollinger looks at early season trends

John Hollinger, the father of the Player Efficiency Rating (PER) has analyzed early trends this season in his article in the nysun. He does a good job of putting the early season statistics in perspective.

The highlights:

- Phoenix's Boris Diaw, for instance, is obviously not in basketball shape (in the spirit of seeing the glass half-full, let's just say he's "bulked up").That's going to be an issue for the Suns all season, not just in their 1–3 start.

- Rockets fans are bothered byTracy McGrady's early-season struggles, but check out his career stats and you'll notice a pattern here. The guy struggles every November, so seeing him get out of the gate so slowly this year shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

- Similarly, the strong starts by Portland's Zach Randolph and Seattle's Ray Allen shouldn't come as a big shock to those in the know — we've seen this movie before.

- I use a measure called "Pace Factor" to track how many possessions each team uses in a 48-minute game. Last year, the average was 92.94; this year it's all the way up to 95.83.


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